Thursday, March 31, 2011

US reluctance to check crude prices

Strange is the stoical silence officially maintained by US while the world suffers with uncontrolled rise of crude prices. The reasons could be many but in order to put them in perspective one would need to go a little backwards in history. Petrol and diesel vehicles have been in use for a few generations but petroleum became a strategic product only after second world war when the world witnessed what wright brothers flying machines could achieve in their new avatar as airplanes.
Still the crude prices remained quite stable through 1950s and 1960s. It was largely due to Bretton woods accord and virtual monopoly of US Dollar as the currency of international trade. However, all was not well and US was printing more dollars than it gold reserves could permit and due to all countries denominating their international trade in dollars the US was exporting inflation to other countries. Almost all currencies of the world were pegged onto US dollar and all was quite well with the world until US unilaterally rescinded from Bretton woods accord. Readers not familiar with this part of history will find my lecture notes quite useful accessible by clicking here
Now US may be shying away from constructive action to check crude prices because of a bad conscience for having caused it in the first place. Or it could be that US speculators are equal partners in the windfall gains made by arbitrary spurts in crude prices. In any case the time has come when US has to own its responsibility and take constructive action the way it has always done.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Crude Prices - Will the world never react?

Crude prices have been holding the world to ransom time and again. Every time crude prices begin their skyward movement economies of the world go in a tizzy. Governments try to economize and so do business houses. Jobs are cut and tax rates rise resulting in the vicious spiral of unemployment causes recession which again causes rising unemployment. But does anyone who matters really care?
The answer seems to be in the negative because during last couple of decades since Oil Producers formed a cartel and began to arm-twist the world the action by the rest of the world has been conspicuous by its absence. Though it is not that the rest of the world and UN are incapable of appropriate action. They could bring even Saddam's Iraq around to behave with the food for oil program. Why can't they act until it is too late and human sufferings have caused an irreparable damage.
Markets of the world especially the stock markets are going to be in a tizzy on 4th April 2011. Whether it is due to rising crude prices is debatable but surely rising crude prices would serve to add proverbial fuel to the fire. There may not be many who would believe that markets could go in a tizzy in less than a week from today but my readers would do well to be forewarned by a reading of  March 2011 Issue of my news letter Astro-Finance.